Author: Keith Hanshaw , Gray Water Ops® , LLC — with Harrisburg University of Science and Technology Center for Innovation & Entrepreneurship (CIE)

Abstract

We introduce a network model of charitable growth inspired by astrophysics. Using a patented NFC‑enabled challenge coin—the Smart Coin®—we map each donor and their downstream referrals in three dimensions and animate growth over time (“Bloom mode”). The visualization resembles a galaxy: roots behave like stars, primary referrals act like orbital planets, and “extra” referrals propagate as red constellations. We present testable claims and a measurement plan to evaluate whether Smart Coin® fundraisers systematically increase revenue and network growth compared with conventional campaigns. The study will be executed as a prospective case study with the Harrisburg University CIE in partnership with Gray Water Ops®.

Tradition and Technology

Our instrument deliberately builds on the American challenge coin tradition—small minted coins exchanged to honor service and belonging (popularized in U.S. military units, with lore reaching back to World War I/II). Gray Water Ops®, a veteran‑owned small business, extends that tradition by minting a custom 2″ solid‑brass coin with an embedded NFC NTAG 424 DNA microchip. Each Smart Coin® links the physical artifact to a live digital experience: scanning the coin could record engagement, route supporters to the charity’s actions page, and attributes downstream gifts to the initiating donor.

The model

  • Nodes = supporters.

Dark blue (roots) are initial donors.

Light blue = a donor’s “primary +1” (by design, max one per parent).

Green = any extra referrals produced by the same donor beyond their +1.

Red = all descendants below any green node (the “extra tree”).

  • This yields two measurable propagation channels:

  1. Primary chain (star → planet → moon …), depth‑limited;

  2. Extra chain (green→red subtrees), which captures “more than one” behavior.

Claims (hypotheses to be tested)

  1. Revenue Lift: Fundraisers using Smart Coin® achieve a statistically significant increase in total dollars raised versus matched non‑coin campaigns of the same organization.

  2. Network Reproduction: The donor reproduction number Rd​—the average number of new donors produced per existing donor—is > 1 with Smart Coin® and > control. We track RprimaryR​ (light‑blue edges) and RextraR​ (extras).

  3. “More‑than‑one” Effect: The share of donors who recruit >1 donor (i.e., those producing green children) is higher with Smart Coin® than control.

  4. Acquisition Efficiency: Cost per acquired donor (CPAD) and cost per dollar raised (CPDR) are lower with Smart Coin®.

  5. Retention & Depth: Smart Coin® increases repeat engagement (rescans, returns) and chain depth without harming gift quality.

  6. Attribution Clarity: The NFC instrument yields higher attribution coverage (fraction of gifts we can assign to a specific upstream donor).

What we will prove (success criteria)

  • Primary endpoint: ≥ 20% lift in total dollars raised versus control, with 95% confidence, across events or time blocks.

  • Secondary endpoints:

(Targets shown are pre‑study thresholds; we’ll register the exact numbers with CIE before data collection.)

How we measure it

Design: Prospective, A/B or stepped‑wedge design with the same charity. Matched periods or donor cohorts: Control (no Smart Coin®) vs Treatment (Smart Coin®).

Instrumentation:

  • Every coin scan logs a time‑stamped, privacy‑safe event tied to the coin ID.

  • Donations arriving through the scan link carry non‑PII attribution (coin ID / root).

  • The 3D map renders edges as they happen; metrics update in real time.

Key metrics & formulas:

  • Revenue lift: Δ$=$SmartCoin​−$Control​; relative lift =Δ$/$Control

  • Reproduction numbers:

R_{\text{primary}} = \frac{\text{# light‑blue edges}}{\text{# eligible parents}} (eligible = all non‑green nodes).

R_{\text{extra}} = \frac{\text{# green children}}{\text{# parents}}.

Rd=Rprimary+Rextra×avg red cascade factor

  • Extras rate: Pr(k>1) where k is children per parent.

  • Depth: mean and 95th‑percentile generation count in primary chains.

  • Efficiency: CPAD = marketing spend / # new donors; CPDR = marketing spend / total dollars.

  • Attribution coverage: % of gifts with a known upstream edge.

Analysis plan: Difference‑in‑differences and mixed‑effects models to control for drive, seasonality, and donor history; bootstrap CIs across events; pre‑registered stopping rules and minimum sample sizes.

Why the universe metaphor matters

  • Stars (roots) seed systems (primary +1 chains).

  • Planets (primary) sometimes form moons but—critically—many systems ignite extra outflows (greens) that blossom into red constellations, visualizing “more than one.”

  • The Bloom animation provides temporal causality—you see influence propagate like star formation, not just an end‑state snapshot. That makes influence, clustering, and momentum measurable, not anecdotal.

Implementation and provenance

Coins are custom‑minted with 3D metal relief and a four‑color epoxy insert covering the embedded NTAG 424 DNA NFC chip, waterproofed by design. The tradition is the classic challenge coin, carried forward from military unit culture to modern communities; the Smart Coin® turns that tradition into a measurable digital instrument.

Falsifiability & ethics

To be credible, the study must allow disconfirmation: if lift and Rd improvements are not observed, we will report that outcome. We will use aggregated, non‑PII analytics, honor opt‑outs, and follow HU CIE review procedures.

Expected contribution

If borne out, this work shows that a physical‑digital tool—the Smart Coin®—can predictably increase fundraising performance by activating social propagation and by giving every supporter a tangible, sharable anchor. The donor map is not just art; it’s a measuring device to audit how generosity spreads.